Cheez-It Bowl: South Carolina vs. Illinois forecast, odds, professional analysis, quarterback matchup, statistics, and trends
Before their Week 5 Bye, South Carolina (9-3) was 3-1 after a close 36-33 loss to LSU.
The Gamecocks had an even 3-3 record during the first half of the season after losing
the following two games to Ole Miss (27-3) and Alabama (27-25).
Ever since, SC has dominated, defeating SEC-caliber opponents like Texas A&M (44–20),
Vanderbilt, Missouri, and CFP Playoff member Clemson six times in a row.
With a 65.1% completion rate (28th) and 21.5% of throw attempts traveling for 20 yards or more (19th),
quarterback LaNorris Sellers leads a strong, well-balanced passing attack that ranks 19th in net yards per attempt (10.3).
South Carolina’s renowned pass rush, which is led by DEs Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard (who chose not to play),
is eighth in the FBS with a pressure rate of 43.6% and first with a 14.9% sack rate on passing downs.
Before facing Penn State’s formidable defense, which limited the Illini to just 219 total yards for the day,
Illinois (9-3) stormed out to a 4-0 start with impressive victories over Kansas and Nebraska.
After defeating an offense-shy Michigan squad 21-7 and narrowly escaping with a 50-49 victory over 1-9
Purdue (25%-win expectancy), they were thrashed by Oregon 38-9 and lost to Minnesota by a single touchdown.
The Illini’s conservative passing style, which ranks 12th in the FBS with a 1.5% interception rate,
forgoes huge plays (68th in pass explosiveness) in favor of consistency (35th in pass success rate/17th first downs per comp).
The main problem on defense is a gloomy run defense that is ranked 134th in terms of stuff
rate and 129th in terms of rushing success rate. Their secondary,
which ranks 12th in yards per successful dropback and
21st in passes of 20 yards or more, has fortunately held up well.
All of the most recent information and analysis is available on NBC Sports,
including player news and updates,
BetMGM odds,
kickoff timing tips,
and, of course, our staff of experts’ predictions and top picks for the match.
Details of the 2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl match between Illinois and South Carolina
Time: 12:00 PM EST Date:
Saturday, December 31st, 2024 Location: Camping World Stadium City:
Orlando, FL ABC on TV and streaming
South Carolina vs. Illinois 2024 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl game odds
- Moneyline: South Carolina (-400), Illinois (+310)
- Spread: South Carolina -10
- Over/Under: 49.5 poi
After starting as -11.5/-425 favorites, South Carolina has subsequently dropped to -10 and
may surpass the crucial figure by the time the game starts.
After falling to 47.5, the game total has now risen to a more aggressive 49.5.
Illinois is covering by an average of 5.8 points per game (17th) and is 8-4 against the spread this season (12th in the FBS).
South Carolina has won their previous six games against a run of formidable opponents,
including Missouri, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Clemson.
They are also 8-4 ATS.
Leading wide receiver Pat Bryant is out for Illinois,
while neither running back Raheim Sanders nor defensive end Kyle Kennard will play for South Carolina.
Given that WR2 Zakhari Franklin has only caught 5 of 14 Red Zone targets,
WR Bryant will be sorely missed in the pass game.
The top three teams on their schedule—Oregon,
Penn State,
and Minnesota—soundly defeated Illinois.
I believe South Carolina can force the Illini’s leaking run defense to do what they want.
South Carolina vs. Illinois, the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl quarterback matchup
- South Carolina: After going through some growing pains in the first half, LaNorris Sellers, a second-year signal caller,
- has lived up to his four-star rating. Sellers has a 17-to-7 ratio, 2,261 passing yards, 8.5 YPA,
- and 64.0% completion rate on his throws thus far.
- There is obviously need for improvement, as Sellers has an SEC-high 10 fumbles,
- a poor 11-to-19 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play percentage, and is fired on 21% of pressures.
- That doesn’t accurately put Sellers’ recent success in perspective, though, as he has a 12-to-2 ratio over his previous five SEC games and has completed 74% of his throws against Alabama’s outstanding secondary.
- Â In 2025, sellers will be a popular sleeper Heisman pick.
- Illinois: quarterback Before it became evident that Jaxson Dart was head coach Lane Kiffin’s top pick,
- Luke Altymer played his first two seasons at Ole Miss. In 2023, he transferred to Illinois and was selected as the starting quarterback.
- With 2,551 yards thrown, a 7.8 YPA (6.9 in 2023), and an impressive 18-to-3 ratio (13-to-10 the previous season),
- Dart has improved this year. With an overall rating of 77.1 PFF, Altmyer is ranked 53rd out of 92 eligible signal callers,
- on par with prominent Power Four quarterbacks Brendan Sorsby, Nico Iamaleava, and Fernando Mendoza.
- Under Altmyer’s direction, Illinois’ throw attack ranks 12th with a 1.5% interception rate and 35th in EPA/Play, helping to offset a poor run game that ranks 72nd in success rate.
Illinois vs. South Carolina: Current Statistics and Betting Patterns
This season, South Carolina’s Red Zone completion percentage is the lowest in the SEC with just 29%.
This season, they have given up the lowest completion rate in the SEC, 47%, when opponents had more than 10 yards remaining.
With 14.1% of 305 attempts this season, South Carolina’s offense has passed for 20 yards or more,
ranking 10th among FBS teams. Illinois’ defense, which ranks 16th among FBS defenses, gave up 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season.
Among Power Conference teams, South Carolina’s opponents averaged 41.6 passing attempts per touchdown this season, which was third-best.
This season, South Carolina has given up the best completion percentage in the SEC, 47%,
when opponents had more than 10 yards remaining.
South Carolina is fourth among Power Conference institutions in terms of sacking opponent quarterbacks on 11% of throw attempts this season.
This season, South Carolina’s offense has been sacked on 13% of pass attempts, ranking third among Power Conference offenses.
Illinois vs. South Carolina: Current Statistics and Betting Patterns
This season, South Carolina’s Red Zone completion percentage is the lowest in the SEC with just 29%.
This season, they have given up the lowest completion rate in the SEC,
47%, when opponents had more than 10 yards remaining.
With 14.1% of 305 attempts this season, South Carolina’s offense has passed for 20 yards or more, ranking 10th among FBS teams.
Illinois’ defense, which ranks 16th among FBS defenses, gave up 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season.
Among Power Conference teams, South Carolina’s opponents averaged 41.6 passing attempts per touchdown this season, which was third-best.
This season, South Carolina has given up the best completion percentage in the SEC, 47%, when opponents had more than 10 yards remaining.
South Carolina is fourth among Power Conference institutions in terms of sacking opponent quarterbacks on 11% of throw attempts this season.
This season, South Carolina’s offense has been sacked on 13% of pass attempts, ranking third among Power Conference offenses.
When it comes to intercepting at least one pass this season, South Carolina is 7-2 (.778) against the spread, which is ninth-best among Power Conference teams.
(On average:.585) This season, Luke Altmyer ranks third among FBS quarterbacks with an average of 15.7 yards per completion in the fourth quarter.
The Big Ten’s top receiver, Pat Bryant, has gained more than 20 yards on 19 of his 54 grabs this season.
This season, Zakhari Franklin is the sixth-worst FBS skill player with just 5 receptions on 14 targets in the Red Zone.
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